Alaska Division of Elections program manager Brian Jackson answers questions from reporters shortly after completing the state's ranked choice voting tabulation in 2024. (Photo by Andrew Kitchenman/Alaska Beacon)
The Alaska Division of Elections expects to report the first results from the state’s general election between 8:45 p.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday night, with updates through the early morning hours Wednesday.
The state’s closest races may not have an unofficial winner for more than two weeks.
Historically, between 75-90% of Election Day results are available by noon Wednesday, with results from rural precincts trickling in through the following days.
The final unofficial results will not be available until Nov. 18, and the division expects to publish an official result on Nov. 25.
Because a disproportionate number of Democratic voters have cast ballots in advance of Election Day and some advance votes are counted after Election Day, initial results will be more right-leaning than the final result.
Under Alaska’s election system, general-election voters may rank each of the four candidates for an office in order of preference.
If one of the four receives at least 50% of the first-choice votes, they win.
If none of the four hit that mark, the person with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and voters who picked them have their votes go to their second choice.
The eliminations and redistributions continue until only two candidates are left, and the person with the most votes wins.
Under a policy established in 2022, the Division of Elections performs the ranked choice tabulation on Nov. 18, the deadline for the last absentee ballots to be counted.
Between 260,000 and 300,000 Alaska voters are expected to participate in this year’s general election, or about half of the state’s 604,771 registered voters, based on the turnout in the past two midterm elections. The state saw 267,047 voters in 2022 and 285,009 in 2018.
By the time Election Day polls open at 7 a.m., more than a third of the state’s likely voters will have already cast ballots. At 4 p.m. Monday, the Division of Elections reported that it had already received just under 100,000 early and absentee votes.
Early votes are done in person at 11 locations on the Railbelt, in Juneau and Nome. Voters’ ID is checked on site, before a person votes.
As of the end of the day on Oct. 31, more registered Republicans than registered Democrats had voted early, but the number of Democratic votes was disproportionately high: 14.6% of the state’s registered Democrats had cast early votes through Oct. 31, compared to 10.9% of the state’s registered Republicans.
Alaska has more than twice as many registered Republicans as registered Democrats, but more than 65% of the state’s 604,771 registered voters are registered to neither of America’s two largest parties.
Absentee ballots can be cast by mail, fax, or in person at dozens of locations across the state. Because a voter’s ID is reviewed after the ballot is cast, some absentee ballots will be rejected for procedural errors or because the voter wasn’t properly registered. Generally, the statewide rejection rate is less than 5%.
More than 14,000 absentee ballots had been sent out but not yet returned as of Sunday noon; past trends indicate most of those will eventually arrive and be counted.
Absentee ballots can arrive by mail as late as Nov. 18 and still be counted, but historical trends show all but a relative handful of absentee ballots arrive within one week of Election Day — this year, that’s by Nov. 10. The busiest day for absentee ballot returns is typically the day after Election Day.
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Courtesy of Alaska Beacon
