Tariffs affect the cost of chocolate because U.S. commercial production of cocoa is limited to Hawaii. However, a more important effect on price is global climate change. In crop year 2023-2024, Africa produced nearly three-fourths of the world’s supply of cocoa beans, largely from West Africa (Ivory Coast 56% and Ghana 15% of Africa’s total). In 2023, West Africa had extreme rainfall with double the 30-year average in some places. The following year, 2024, had extreme drought and heat. These conditions affected the ability of cocoa farmers to bring their crop to market.
The growth of attribution science in the last few years has enabled scientists to estimate the effect of climate change on weather, fires, floods, and other disasters that are becoming more frequent. In the case of West Africa’s 2024 experience, World Attribution Science’s staff concluded that the spring heat wave was 4 degrees C hotter and 10 times more likely because of climate change.
The effect on cocoa bean production is reflected in the increasing price since 2022, which climbed in 2023, more in 2024, and even more this year. You may have noticed this in Valentine Day’s treats and Easter eggs. The Guardian reports that the highest price inflation for foodstuffs were for cocoa (163% over a year) and coffee (103%). But price increases due to unexpected ill weather in 2024 have occurred for rice in India and Japan, sunflower oil from Ukraine and Bulgaria (56%), orange juice and butter (more than one-third), and beef (up more than a quarter).
The climate-related price volatility of food stuffs poses a challenge apart from tariffs, a potential economic downturn, and loss of food production workers due to deportations. For all these threats, attention to local food production would be a wise investment. We have a short growing season and limited land and soil for growing vegetables and fruit. It takes years to develop private and community garden resources, as well as considerable investment.
As an example, the Sitka community included a need for community gardens in the 2018 comprehensive plan and 2022 strategic plan. A couple of dedicated volunteers located potential municipal land for a community garden 3 years ago. It has taken 2 years of working with the Planning Department and Assembly to execute a land lease signed just this week for a half acre on Jarvis Street. In the meantime, grant and private fund raising has been continuous, since clearing of muskeg, hardening required parking, installing utilities, building a deer- and bear-proof electrified fence, and paying for required insurance, require thousands of dollars. Obtaining top soil and lumber for raised beds come next, and in Sitka soil amendments from compost and seaweed will be an annual requirement. We will never be able to grow cocoa beans, but we may have more fresh food produced locally. This endeavor needs duplication and welcomes public participation to learn gardening skills and to work together.
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Kay Kreiss, Transition Sitka
