New State Population Count Shows Increase

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Category: News

Created on Wednesday, 08 January 2025 14:38

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By JAMES BROOKS
Alaska Beacon
    A new state population estimate shows Alaska has 741,147 residents, an increase of more than 4,300 people from a figure published last year.
    While more people moved out of the state than moved into it for a 12th consecutive year, those losses were outweighed by new births within the state.
    Officials at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, which publishes the annual estimate, also revised the state’s estimated 2023 population upward. That revision, plus a year-over-year gain between 2023 and 2024, gives the state its highest estimated population since 2017.
    “That was kind of the biggest thing that I was surprised by that came out of this,” said state demographer David Howell, speaking about the upward revision.
    In December, the U.S. Census Bureau published figures that sharply raised the number of estimated international immigrants coming into the United States, including Alaska.
    The Census Bureau estimated that more than 4,000 international immigrants arrived in Alaska between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024, enough to balance the number of people moving out of Alaska to other parts of the United States.
    “It basically doubled what (international migration) was the previous year,” Howell said.
    Population estimates are constantly revised from year to year, but this year’s change was particularly large.
    Howell expressed some skepticism about the Census Bureau’s numbers.
    “Obviously, I think our data is a little better, so I tend to lean toward ours,” he said, adding that he believes the Census Bureau will revise its numbers downard.
    The state numbers show a smaller estimated increase than the Census Bureau figures, but one that was big enough to significantly change Alaska’s estimated 2023 population.
    The revision has real-world effects. Planners estimate demand for transportation and other services based on estimated population.
    Last year, the state’s estimate showed the Municipality of Anchorage was continuing to lose population, and road designers scaled down plans for a connector between the Seward and Glenn Highways.
    Now, after the revision, the estimate shows Anchorage gaining population for two consecutive years. The municipality stands at 290,761 residents, not far below its 2020 figure.
    For more than a decade, Alaska has seen more people move out of the state than move into it. From 2016 through 2020, the pace of outmigration was so high that Alaska lost population overall.
    But in recent years, the outmigration trend has slowed, and the state’s “natural increase” — births minus deaths — has overcome population losses caused by people moving away.
    “Even if they do revise these (international migration) numbers down, it does seem like things are starting to stabilize,” Howell said.
    At the regional and borough level, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough continues to be the fastest-growing area of the state, gaining more than 2,000 residents between 2023 and 2024.
    Southeast Alaska continues to lose population and now has fewer than 71,000 residents.
    In the Interior, the population of the Fairbanks North Star Borough grew by 0.65% between 2023 and 2024.
    Over the next year, Howell will keep an eye on how many people the U.S. military sends to bases in the Fairbanks area, he said.
    “I think that’s the big wild card,” he said.
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https://alaskabeacon.com/james-brooks

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