By SHANNON HAUGLAND
Sentinel Staff Writer
After a count of most of the absentee ballots put Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins safely ahead of his challenger for House District 35, the incumbent has been meeting in Anchorage figuring out possible leadership scenarios.
“It’s reasonably likely there may be a majority caucus that has been identified by the end of the week,” the Sitka Democrat said today. “We’re trying to figure out who will govern the House and what that structure will look like.”
Kreiss-Tomkins was elected to his fifth term, making him the fourth most senior legislator in the House, along with three others. He trailed in the count of ballots cast in person on election day, but today held a 5,677 to 3,971 vote lead. The state Division of Elections started counting absentee ballots Nov. 10.
Today is the deadline for ballots to arrive that were mailed from overseas. But given the margins, the number of ballots left are unlikely to change the outcome in any of the districts, and election officials said today that all of the ballots have been counted in many districts.
Kreiss-Tomkins has been in the majority in the House for the past four years, as part of a bipartisan majority. As a member, he co-chaired the House State Affairs Committee.
The news that the count of absentee ballots in recent days had flipped an Anchorage Republican seat to a Democrat, Liz Snyder, didn’t particularly surprise Kreiss-Tomkins, but he said it was good news.
The majority that includes Kreiss-Tomkins is comprised of 14 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 3 independents. The November election will add one Democrat and one independent to the mix.
“Everybody knew that was going to be one of the most contested races in the state,” Kreiss-Tomkins said, of the Liz Snyder race. “We knew it would be close this year. I’m not surprised by the outcome but that doesn’t make it less exciting.”
Kreiss-Tomkins said he sees Snyder’s win over minority leader Lance Pruitt, and the pickup of another independent seat by independent Calvin Schrage for District 25 are among the signs that Alaska is changing. Schrage trailed on election day, but is currently ahead by 389 votes.
“The state is empirically becoming more moderate,” Kreiss-Tomkins said, adding, “This is the first (Alaska) election cycle since 1992 that a Democrat has lost to a Republican candidate for president by less than 10 points.”
Trump carried Alaska in 2016 by a 15-point margin, and did so again this year by just under 10 points, or 35,934 votes. By comparison, Kreiss-Tomkins said, in 2000 Bush carried the state with a nearly 30-point margin, over Al Gore.
“To go from 30 points to 9 points in 20 years – that’s a lot of margin of change,” he said.
In general, Kreiss-Tomkins said, he believes the move toward “moderate” is positive.
“It’s very exciting, even though Alaska will not be objectively a purple state, but there is quantitative reason to believe it may be a reality later in this decade,” he said.
But for this week, Kreiss-Tomkins said he’s continuing his work with fellow legislators figuring out the composition of a majority, “who’s in the majority and who chairs what committee.”
“It’s definitely an evolving situation,” he said.
