By SHANNON HAUGLAND
Sentinel Staff Writer
A new COVID risk reporting model that goes into use here Sept. 1 follows the state model and is the “standard measure of case rates in epidemiology,” the city Emergency Operations Center says.
Acting Incident Commander Rob Janik discussed the plan with members of Unified Command at the end of the city group’s weekly Wednesday meeting, and said the model follows the recommendation of the state Section of Epidemiology.
“They revised the model to better assess and report the risk in every community,” he told the group.
The new model uses four different risk levels, based on cases per 100,000 in the last seven days.
“Every place else in the country is reporting cases by 100,000,” he said today. “It’s a standard measure of case rates in epidemiology.”
The new reporting system and risk levels allow Sitka residents to compare the case rates with those of other communities, Janik said.
“The state adopted this model this month,” he said.
The four colors associated with risk levels are red (high), orange (substantial), yellow (moderate) and light blue (low).
The state posted the reasons for the change, saying it was intended to align with the CDC’s levels.
“The orange level previously corresponded to at least 5 but less than 10 cases per 100,000 persons per day on average, whereas the new orange level corresponds to about 7 to about 14 cases per 100,000 persons per day on average,” it says. “Additionally, DHSS previously calculated alert levels by averaging the number of reported cases over the past 14 days, whereas the current alert levels are based on the reported number of cases over the past seven days. This approach makes the alert level more sensitive to recent changes in the number of reported COVID-19 cases.”
The colors go with risk levels of: Red, high (100 cases or more per 100,000 for the last seven days); Orange, substantial (50 to 99 cases per 100,000 for the last seven days); Yellow, moderate (10 to 49 cases); and Blue, low (less than 10 cases).
The number of cases in the last seven days in Sitka was 47, which would put the cases per 100,000 around 553, and still in the “high” risk territory under the new scale.
Janik said he believes there will be a transition period, as Sitkans become used to using the new model, but that he believes it will be easier to use for comparisons to other communities.
The state Department of Health and Social Services Section of Epidemiology explains the modifications at: dhss.alaska.gov/dph/Epi/id/Pages/COVID-19/alertlevels.aspx
