By JAMES BROOKS
Alaska Beacon
All three incumbents likely clinched final victory in Alaska’s statewide elections Friday, as the Alaska Division of Elections updated results with thousands of additional absentee, questioned and early ballots from this fall’s general election.
Final unofficial results will not be available until 4 p.m. Wednesday, when the division implements the state’s new ranked choice sorting system, but voting trends have made the results clear in most races.
With 264,994 votes counted, incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy had 50.3% of the vote for governor, well above his leading challenger, Democratic candidate Les Gara, who had 24.2%. Independent candidate Bill Walker had 20.7% and Republican challenger Charlie Pierce had 4.5%.
Friday was the deadline for absentee ballots sent from within the United States to arrive and be counted. Ballots are counted by the elections division’s five regional offices, and by the end of the day Friday, most offices had finished counting all ballots that had arrived through Wednesday.
A few hundred ballots sent from international destinations could be added to the count if they arrive by Nov. 23, but it appears all but certain that the remaining ballots are too few to alter the governor’s race, where Dunleavy has a margin large enough that ranked choice sorting will not take place.
In races where no candidate earns at least 50% of the vote, the lowest finisher is eliminated, and voters who supported that person have their votes redistributed to their second choices. That process continues until only two candidates are left, and the person with the most votes wins.
In the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races, no candidate is expected to finish with more than 50% of the vote.
For U.S. House, Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola had 48.7% of the vote, ahead of Republican challengers Sarah Palin (25.8%) and Nick Begich (23.4%) and Libertarian challenger Chris Bye (1.7%).
While the combined totals of Palin and Begich would surpass Peltola’s tally, a special election in August showed the number of Begich voters willing to support Palin with second-choice votes was too small for her to overtake Peltola. Pre-election opinion polling showed little change in opinions since August.
In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski led all challengers with 43.3%. Her main challenger, Republican Kelly Tshibaka, led on Election Day, but Murkowski erased that deficit by the end of the day Friday with late-counted absentee and early votes. By the end of the day Friday, Tshibaka had 42.7%, trailing by 1,658 votes out of 259,747 cast in the race.
When ranked choice voting begins, Murkowski is expected to receive the majority of the second-choice votes cast by supporters of the third-place finisher, Democratic candidate Patricia Chesbro (10.4%). Many supporters of the fourth-place finisher, Republican Buzz Kelley (2.9%), are expected to back Tshibaka, but those votes are not expected to be sufficient for Tshibaka to win.
Legislative races
Of the 59 races on the ballot for the state House and Senate, nine were unresolved Friday night, including two in the state Senate and seven in the state House.
Complete tossups
In South Anchorage, former Republican Senate President Cathy Giessel narrowly leads a three-way race that also features incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Holland and Democratic candidate Roselynn Cacy.
Giessel had 33.6% of the vote, Holland 33.1% and Cacy 32.9% as of Friday night. Elections officials said they had counted all early votes, questioned ballots and absentee ballots received through Wednesday, Nov. 16.
A relative handful of ballots remain uncounted in the race, which will be decided when elections officials calculate ranked choice sorting on Nov. 23.
Democrats and moderate Republicans seeking to create a coalition majority in the Senate have said they are waiting on the results of Giessel’s race.
Because of that, there’s really not been a lot of definitive movement on (Senate organization),” said Sen. Donny Olson, D-Golovin, and the only lIn the state House, two Anchorage races and one in the Mat-Su had no likely winner.
For the district surrounding the Alaska Zoo, nonpartisan candidate Walter Featherly has 45.5% of the vote, followed by Republicans Julie Coulombe (38.7%) and Ross Bieling (15.4%). Ranked choice voting will decide the winner of the race; if sufficient Bieling supporters chose Coulombe as a second choice, she will overtake Featherly.
In the district around Campbell Lake, Democratic candidate Denny Wells has 46.6% of the vote, leading incumbent Republican Rep. Tom McKay, who has 38.8% of the vote. A third Republican has 14.1% of the vote. Ranked choice sorting will result in many of those votes going to McKay.
In the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, four Republicans are competing for a newly redrawn Wasilla district. Republican Jesse Sumner has 36.7% of the vote, but three other Republicans have substantial totals, and the race will be decided with Wednesday’s ranked choice sorting.
Likely winners
In addition to the four tossup races, there are five races that are unresolved but have likely winners based on voting patterns.
In the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, incumbent Republican Sen. David Wilson has 44.5% of the vote in his race for re-election, but Republican challenger Stephen Wright has 29% of the vote and could overtake Wilson if he receives enough second-choice votes when fellow Republican challenger Scott Clayton (25.3%) is eliminated in ranked choice sorting.
In the House district covering Anchorage’s Government Hill and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Republican incumbent Rep. David Nelson has 44% of the vote, ahead of Democratic challengers Cliff Groh (35.3%) and Lyn Franks (20.3%), but Groh is expected to receive the second-choice votes of most Franks supporters. Those are expected to make Groh the winner.
In northeast Anchorage, just south of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Republican Stanley Wright has 50.7% of the vote in a head-to-head race against Democrat Ted Eischeid, who has 48.9%. The difference between the two candidates is just 67 votes, and late-counted absentee ballots have favored Democrats, but there likely are too few ballots remaining to be counted in the district for Eischeid to overtake Wright.
In East Anchorage, Democratic candidate Donna Mears has 50.1% of the vote in a head-to-head race against Republican Forrest Wolfe, who has 48.8%. The margin between the two candidates is 152 votes, and late-counted votes have gone in Mears’ favor, but some ballots remain uncounted.
In the district around Big Lake, in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin McCabe has 45% of the vote. Republican challenger Doyle Holmes has 34.4% and Democratic challenger Joy Mindiola has 20%. It isn’t clear who — if anyone — Mindiola’s supporters have picked as their second choice.
